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NFL Week 1 Data Review

Each Wednesday during the NFL season, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below.  It provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

We will also be reviewing how well our projected results have done for the week, and pointing out some aspects of our site that we hope you will find useful in your handicapping.

Obviously, with only one week of data, the information is presented for review and not to attempt to glean any trends from.

Overall our projected data had what we would call an “acceptable” Week 1, with our success rates being 62.5% for the Money Line, 43.8% ATS, and 71.4% for the Totals.

Some things worth mentioning:  

NFL Totals

Last week, before the start of the season, we posted a Blog entry alerting our users that for Week 1 in the NFL, we were top heavy in projecting the Over as the outcome.  Candidly, we were concerned that our Total projections seemed so lopsided.  Whether it was dumb luck or that our methodology is smarter than we think, it turned out that our Total projections were very accurate.  In Week 2, our current distribution has 7 Overs and 9 Unders, something we are typically much more comfortable with.  That said, it will be interesting this weekend to see if the Totals begin to find a middle ground, or if the offenses and special teams continue piling on the points.

Favorite Flips

Last week we also posted a Blog update about a situation that we have found historically to be very favorable ATS.  It occurs when a Favorite flips from the Opening Line, from one team to the other.  You can read about it in depth here, What Happens When Favorites Flip.  The article breaks down many scenarios, but the strongest play in these cases is to stick with the Home team, regardless if they opened as the Favorite or the Dog.

In Week 1 of the NFL, there were three games that met this criteria, and also one game in College Football this past weekend.

NFL

  • Colts vs Texans – Texans Win ATS and Outright as the Home Favorite
  • Titans vs the Jaguars – Jags Win ATS and Outright as the Home Dog
  • Falcons vs Bears – Bears win ATS and Outright as the Home Dog

NCAAF

  • UNCONN vs Vandy – Vandy wins ATS and Outright as the Home Favorite

The situation proved to be 4-0 in all of football last week, and is something we will alert you to when we see it’s in play.

Results By Line

For a breakdown on how the Week 1 Lines flushed out by Favorites and Underdogs, please click the graph below.

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In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Division, Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • There is only 1 weeks of data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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  1. Guest
    September 16, 2011 at 1:49 am

    Great blog. Loved the breakdown of the lines when you look at all the history. 63.5% for the underdogs when the line is 6.5

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