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NCAAF Week 2 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below.  It provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

We will also be reviewing how well our projected results have done for the week, and pointing out some aspects of our site, that we hope you will find useful in your handicapping.

Our projected data again had a strong week against the Money Line and ATS, posting 73.3% and 61.4% success rates respectively.

For Totals, we continue to hover below .500, posting a 45.5% win rate for week 2.

For those of you new to us, we project the outcomes of all games. 

We always feel compelled to emphasize, that the  projections should only be used as a tool in your handicapping, not has a bible to go by.  Use the projected data for things like comparing our “projected overlay” against the line, not as an expectation of a final score.

To help you do this kind of research, we offer tools such as the The Analysis Graphs section, shown below.

It gives you a great overview of the NCAAF data, in a graphical format and offers many query-able display options.  You can click the image to open the website section.

There you will be able to see breakdowns of things such as:

  • Favorites and Dogs results by Line
  • Total results by Total Move
  • “Projected Overlay” performance
  • Correlated Total results  by Line

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 2 Data: 

  • The Over continues to show strength, 61.9%,  in AWAY FAVORITE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
  • HOME FAVORITES are 89.1% against the Money Line
  • In the AWAY FAVORITE situations the Dog is 60.0%
  • HOME teams are 58.8% ATS
  • The ATS Public Consensus being correct dropped 9.3% to 53.3% in Week 2
  • The Totals Public Consensus being correct dropped 14.4% to 35.6% in Week 2

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • There are only 2 weeks of data–still a relatively small sample
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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