Home > General Information, Trends > NFL Week 1 Historic Cover Rates

NFL Week 1 Historic Cover Rates

The NFL regular season finally tees it up on Thursday.

We have put together some data that we hope you will find informative.

All the information is specific to historic Week 1 outcomes, in the NFL.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively small sample size, but it still provides for some interesting reading.

Some things that jumped out at us when analyzing the Week 1 Data: 

  • Dogs of 7.5 or higher are about 73% ATS and Favorites of between 5.5-7 are also 73% ATS
  • The Under has been the side 64.6% of the time
  • When the Total moved Up, the move weighed heavily in favor of it being incorrect, meaning the Under was the play
  • The Lines have been generally tight, Overall ATS Favorites are 51.3% and Dogs 48.7%, but take a look at Away Favorites in Division and Non-Conference games, and Home Favorites in Conference Games
  • Colts Historically weak as a Dog ATS
  • Browns, Chiefs, and 49ers weak in the role as a Favorite ATS
  • Lions, Steelers, and Titans strong in role as a Dog ATS
  • Eagles, Packers, Giants, Ravens strong in role as a Favorite ATS – Note the Ravens who are a strong Favorite and the Steelers who are a strong Dog play each other
  • Cowboys Patriots, Lions, and Raiders Historically strong Overs
  • Bears, Chiefs, Rams, and Eagles Historically strong Unders – Note the Rams and the Eagles play each other

We hope you find the information an asset to your Week 1 NFL handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us at @GreyMatterStats

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_TEAM – Results by team as a underdog, favorite and overall
  2. BY_LINE – Results by Closing Line
  3. BY_LINE_MOVE – Results by Line Move based on the Opening and Closing Lines
  4. BY_TOTAL – Results By Closing Total
  5. BY_TOTAL_MOVE – Results By Total Move based on the Opening and Closing Total
  6. BY_CONF_DIV – Results by Division, Conference, and NON-Conference games by Favorite Type
  7. BY_AWAY_HOME Results by Away and Home by Favorite Type

Please note the following in regards to the data:

    • The data consists of five years rolling history that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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