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How Did NCAAF Week 1 Trends Hold Up?

In a Blog post from prior to the kickoff of the 2011/2012 College Football Season, we offered some historic data for users to review as well as made note of a few strong trends that jumped out at us.

With the first week of College Football in the books, we thought we’d take a look at how those situations preformed this past weekend.

Situation 1 & 2, both focused on the Neutral Site games which are listed below.

GAME# TEAMS CLOSING FINAL
141 KENTUCKY WILDCATS -800 F 17 14
142 WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS + 600 D 48.5 3
173 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS -1300 F 20.5 56
174 EAST CAROLINA PIRATES + 900 D 61 37
181 INDIANA HOOSIERS -210 F 5.5 20
182 BALL STATE CARDINALS + 180 D 54 27
187 BOISE STATE BRONCOS -150 F 3 35
188 GEORGIA BULLDOGS + 130 D 51.5 21
189 OREGON DUCKS -170 F 3.5 27
190 LSU FIGHTIN’ TIGERS + 150 D 54 40

Situation 1

In Week 1 Neutral Site games, the Underdogs have been 66.7% while the Money Line Favorites have been 76.9% – So the points have come into play in these situations

RESULT – ATS the Underdogs went 4-1, 80.0%

Situation 2

In Week 1 Neutral Site Games, the Under is 69.2% versus 53.1% in Week 1 Non-Neutral Site games

RESULT –  Under went 2-3, 40.0%

The third situation involved Line Moves of plus 1-3 points upward, and going with the Line Move.

GAME # TEAM OPEN CLOSING ATS RESULT FINAL
131 UNLV RUNNIN REBELS + 9000 D 56 D 56 W 17
132 WISCONSIN-MADISON BADGERS -16000 F 32.5 F 34.5 L 51
163 SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS + 350 D 47.5 D 46.5 W 23
164 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH -420 F 8.5 F 11 L 20
165 BRIGHAM YOUNG COUGARS -135 F 1 F 2.5 L 14
166 OLE MISS REBELS + 115 D 55 D 55 W 13
167 SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS + 3000 D 53 D 53 L 3
168 STANFORD CARDINAL -4500 F 28 F 30 W 57
179 RICE OWLS + 1800 D 56.5 D 54.5 L 9
180 TEXAS LONGHORNS -3200 F 22.5 F 24 W 34
183 TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE + 2250 D 64.5 D 63 L 14
184 OKLAHOMA SOONERS -4500 F 22.5 F 24 W 47
199 LOUISIANA-MONROE WARHAWKS + 3500 D 53.5 D 55 L 0
200 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES -7000 F 28.5 F 30 W 34
201 TROY TROJANS + 450 D 54.5 D 53 L 19
202 CLEMSON TIGERS -600 F 13 F 14.5 W 43
203 FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS + 9000 D 47.5 D 49.5 L 3
204 FLORIDA GATORS -16000 F 31 F 34 W 41
207 MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD + 1400 D 52.5 D 53 W 13
208 WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS -2200 F 19.5 F 21.5 L 34
209 SMU MUSTANGS + 475 D 56.5 D 54.5 L 14
210 TEXAS A&M AGGIES -650 F 13.5 F 15 W 46

Situation 3

Week 1 Line Moves of plus 1-3 points have weighed heavily towards the Favorite being the correct play

RESULT –  Favorite went 7-4 63.6%

If you found any trends when reviewing the data and would like to report the outcomes, please feel free to leave a comment or post it on our twitter @GreyMatterStats.

Look for our Historic NFL Week 1 Cover Rates Blog on Wednesday.

Thanks,

The Staff at GreyMatterStats

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