Home > General Information, Trends > NCAAF Week 1 Historic Cover Rates

NCAAF Week 1 Historic Cover Rates

College football kicks off in a just a few days, and we thought it would make for some interesting reading to take a look at how teams have fared historically in Week 1.

Some things that jumped out at us: 

  • In Week 1 Neutral Site games, the Underdogs have been 66.7%  while the Money Line Favorites have been 76.9% – So the points have come into play in these situations
  • In Week 1 Neutral Site Games, the Under is 69.2% versus 53.1% in Week 1 Non-Neutral Site games
  • Week 1 Line Moves of plus 1-3 points have weighed heavily towards the Favorite being the correct play

We hope you find the information an asset to your Week 1 college football handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or post a Tweet to us at @GreyMatterStats

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_TEAM – Results by team as a underdog, favorite and overall
  2. BY_LINE – Results by Closing Line
  3. BY_LINE_MOVE – Results by Line Move based on the Opening and Closing Lines
  4. BY_TOTAL – Results By Closing Total
  5. BY_TOTAL_MOVE – Results By Total Move based on the Opening and Closing Total
  6. BY_SITE – Results for games played on a Neutral Site vs Home Game

Please note the following in regards to the data:

    • The data consists of five years rolling history that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • Only games where both teams were playing their first game of the season was included-So for example last season when Air Force played BYU, it was Air Force’s first game of the season but BYU’s second; therefore the results are not included in the analysis
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window


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